The India unit of Sydney-based Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) in its Mid-Year Aviation Outlook 2019 has said that the Indian airlines industry is likely to post higher losses at $1.65-1.90 billion in the year ending March 2019, up from the estimated $430-460 million, largely due to higher costs and lower yields. Besides, it stated that airlines need to raise over $3 billion in near-term based on June quarter estimates, with full service carriers requiring around $2.6 billion, while the low-cost peers needing $400 million.
According to the report, full service carriers are critically placed and could lose $1.75-2 billion in the current fiscal largely because of their uncompetitive cost base on domestic operations and a lack of profitability on international routes. Report also highlighted that the financial outlook for airlines has deteriorated dramatically since January even as passenger traffic grows unabated. It mentioned that at that time (since January) CAPA India forecast a consolidated industry loss of $430-460 million, subject to oil remaining below $70/barrel and the US dollar exchange rate at Rs 65-67. Besides, it said “our revised forecast is for an industry loss of $1.65-1.90 billion in FY19. These projections assume oil at $75-80 per barrel and the exchange rate at Rs 70-72.”
Observing that the domestic airlines industry is facing headwinds, but not a downward cycle as economic fundamentals are strong, CAPA India said that despite the challenges faced by the aviation sector, the wider macro-economic conditions remain strong. It noted that with airlines offering low fares, demand for travel will be stimulated because of which the domestic traffic is expected to grow at 18-20 per cent this year, and international at 10-12 per cent, consistent with the CAPA India forecast in January.
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