The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in its latest report has forecasted that Indian economy is likely to grow 7% in calendar year 2018 as compared to 6.2% in 2017. It added that growing demand for exports has led to a moderate recovery in industrial production. Even though, the effects of demonetization are still evident in private consumption trends within the economy.
The body in its Trade and Development Report said that the resulting increase in capacity utilization in manufacturing along with a recapitalization of public banks has enabled a rise in investment for the first time in several years. But, at the same time, a disconcerting feature is the deceleration of growth in the primary sectors. The service sector is expanding with trade, hotels, transport and communication leading the way. As per the report, a lending spree by the banking system during the high growth years has led to the accumulation of large volumes of bad debt or non-performing assets in the balance sheets of leading banks. This, besides threatening financial stability, is curbing credit expansion and is likely to adversely affect investment and growth.
On the Indian currency, the UNCTAD said the Indian rupee is under pressure on foreign exchange markets. Over the first five months of 2018 the currency had depreciated by more than 7.5% relative to the dollar. Depreciation relative to other major currencies like the British pound, the euro and the yen, has been much less. Yet, the fall vis-a-vis the dollar is of significance, especially since much of the trade and foreign debt of India is denominated in dollars. A leading determinant of the depreciation is the rise in the current account deficit on the balance of payments of India intensified by the sharp rise in the international price of oil.
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