India’s GDP growth to accelerate to 7.3% in 2018-19: World Bank

08 Oct 2018 Evaluate

Expressing optimism on India’s growth, the World Bank in its latest report on South Asia has said that the country’s growth is firming up. It projected that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will accelerate to 7.3% in the fiscal 2018-19 and 7.5% in the next two years with stronger private spending and export growth as the key drivers. It added that the Indian economy appears to have recovered from the temporary disruptions caused by demonetisation and the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). Though, it also said domestic risks and a less benign external environment impact the macro-economic outlook.

With a significant acceleration in recent months, the report said the country’s growth reached 6.7% in fiscal year 2017-18. On the production side, it said the turnaround in the second half was led by manufacturing (that grew at 8.8% versus 2.7% in the first half). Agriculture growth improved, and services growth held steady at 7.7%. On the demand side, the pick-up in growth was reflected in a sharp acceleration in gross fixed capital formation to 11.7% in the second half, from 3.4% in the first.

According to the report, consumption, growing at 7% in the second half, remained the major driver of growth. It said external headwinds - monetary policy 'normalisation' in the US coupled with recent stress in some Emerging Market and Developing Economies - have triggered portfolio outflows from April 2018 onwards. It said that as a result, the nominal exchange rate depreciated by about 12% from January to September 2018, and foreign reserves declined by over 5% since March, while remaining comfortable at about nine months of imports. Of the view that India faces continued internal and external risks, it said that high oil prices and an uncertain global trade environment may pose challenges for the current account.

On the current account deficit (CAD) front, the World Bank said a widening trade deficit is likely to lead to a CAD of around 2.6% of the GDP in fiscal year 2018-19, and tighter global financing conditions will put added emphasis on India's ability to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Besides, fiscal consolidation is expected to resume in fiscal year 2018-19, but slippages could happen on both the revenue side (as the GST is still stabilising) and the expenditure side (ahead of state and federal elections). It added that elevated oil prices, a recent hike in agricultural support prices and further exchange rate depreciation could keep the inflation outlook challenging, possibly resulting in further monetary policy actions.

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