IMF retains India’s economic growth forecast at 7.3% for 2018

09 Oct 2018 Evaluate

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report has retained India’s economic growth forecast at 7.3% for the current year 2018. Though, it is lower than the government and the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) forecasts. However, IMF lowered the country’s growth projections by 0.1 percentage points to 7.4% for 2019, given the recent increase in oil prices and the tightening of global financial conditions. In 2017, India had clocked growth rate of 6.7%.

The world body said that this acceleration reflected a rebound from transitory shocks (the currency exchange initiative and implementation of the national Goods and Services Tax), with strengthening investment and robust private consumption. As per the report, India's medium-term growth prospects remained strong at 7.75%, benefiting from ongoing structural reform, but have been marked down by just under half a percentage point relative to the April 2018 WEO. If projections are true, then India would regain the tag of fastest growing major economies of the world, crossing China with more than 0.7 percentage point in 2018 and an impressive 1.2 percentage point growth lead in 2019.

The IMF noted that in India important reforms have been implemented in the recent years, including the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the inflation-targeting framework, the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, and steps to liberalise foreign investment and make it easier to do business. Looking ahead, renewed impetus to reform labour and land markets, along with further improvements to the business climate, are also crucial. According to the World Economic Outlook, in India, reform priorities include reviving bank credit and enhancing the efficiency of credit provision by accelerating the cleanup of bank and corporate balance sheets and improving the governance of public sector banks. In India, a high interest burden and risks from rising yields require continued focus on debt reduction to establish policy credibility and build buffers. These efforts should be supported by further reductions in subsidies and enhanced compliance with the GST.

Moreover, the IMF has downgraded the international growth projections for both this year and next to 3.7%, 0.2 percentage points below its last assessments and the same rate achieved in 2017. The growth rate of United States for 2018 is 2.9% and that of 2019 has been powered to 2.5%. As per the report, in China growth is projected to moderate from 6.9% in 2017 to 6.6% in 2018 and 6.2% in 2019, reflecting a slowing external demand growth and necessary financial regulatory tightening.

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