Amid untimely rains and pest attacks affecting the cane crop, industry body, The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) has projected that sugar output of India is likely to fall by 3% to 31.5 million tonnes (MT) in the current marketing year (October 2018-September 2019). Taking into account higher cane acreage and forecast of normal monsoon, it had projected a production of 35 MT in the 2018-19 season. It added that diversion of cane juice for ethanol also impact production. Besides, sugar production reached at an all-time high of 32.5 MT in the 2017-18 marketing year.
The ISMA reduced the sugar production estimate for the 2018-19 marketing year as the sugarcane crop in the three main growing states of Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka, which contribute around 80% to the total sugar output, have been impacted adversely. It said that there would be surplus availability of sugar in the country despite estimated fall in production because of huge carry-over stocks from the previous marketing year. It added that the total availability of sugar would be 42.7 MT during 2018-19 as against the annual domestic demand of 25.5-26 MT. Even if mills export 4-5 MT of sugar, the closing stock would be significantly high at 11-13 MT.
The association has revised its sugar production estimates for UP from 13-13.5 MT tonne made in July 2018 to 12.1 MT, which is almost similar to 12.04 MT in 2017-18. In Maharashtra, sugar production is estimated at around 9.5 MT as against 10.72 MT in 2017-18. In July, ISMA had pegged output at 11-11.5 MT. Moreover, sugar production in Karnataka is now estimated at 4.2 MT from 4.48 MT projected in July.