Highlighting positives like dip in crude prices and the $75-billion currency swap with Bank of Japan, rating agency Crisil in its latest report has said that the Indian rupee may appreciate to 71 against the dollar by March 2019. Pegging 71 to a dollar as its base case, it said there is a 50% probability for the rupee to be at that level by March 2019.
Crisil said there is a 35% probability for the rupee settling at 74 against the dollar in the same time period and there is only a 15% likelihood of its appreciating to its earlier target of 68.5 against the greenback. It noted that the rising interest rates in the US are among the biggest risks for the rupee as capital outflows will continue in such a scenario.
The report stated that the rupee depreciation in 2018 has been less severe than 2013 despite greater intensity of global shocks, pointing out that this indicates the stronger underlying resilience of the economy relative to 2013. It said crude oil has already gone up to $75.3 a barrel levels as of October 31, up from $86.1 a barrel on October 4, which should help the rupee. However, pressure continues in the form of rising interest rates in the US.
At present, it said that global risk aversion is causing investors to flee emerging markets and countries with a wider current account deficit are the most punished ones. It also said if the investor appetite changes to look at emerging markets positively, India stands better placed with strengths like higher GDP growth, lower inflation, high forex cover and better policy stability. Besides, the rupee has lost nearly 15% since April this year, which has seen it breach lifetime lows against the dollar of 74.49 against the dollar.
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