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India’s economic growth will slow down to 7.3% in 2019, 2020: Moody’s

09 Nov 2018 Evaluate

Warning of a credit squeeze for non-banking financial entities, global rating agency Moody’s Investors Service in its latest report has forecasted that India’s economic growth will slow down to 7.3% in 2019 and 2020 from 7.4% in 2018, as domestic demand tapers on higher borrowing cost due to rising interest rates. It said the greatest downside risk to India's growth prospects stem from concerns about its financial sector.

The report titled ‘Global Macro Outlook 2019-20' stated that the economy grew 7.9% in the first half (January-June) of 2018, which reflects post demonetisation base effect. Moody’s said factors that will limit the pace of the Indian economy's growth over the next few years includes borrowing costs which have already increased on higher interest rates. It also expects the Reserve Bank will continue to steadily raise the benchmark rate through 2019, which will further dampen domestic demand.

The rating agency said the impact of higher global oil prices compounded by sharp rupee depreciation raises the cost of households' consumption basket, and will weigh on households' capacity for other expenditures. It added that borrowing costs have already risen because of tightening monetary policy. It said, in the short term while measures to stabilise the financial sector are put in place, credit growth is likely to slow. It also said downside risks from a prolonged liquidity squeeze for non-bank financial institutions, which could lead to a sharper slowdown in their credit provision, remain.

On the global economic front, Moody's said global economic growth will slow in 2019 and 2020 to a little under 2.9% from an estimated 3.3% in 2018 and 2017. The US-based agency expects trade and geopolitical frictions between the US and China to persist for some time. It added that this will weigh on the global trade growth and will reshape trade flows and supply chains.

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