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CAD may shrink to 2.6% of GDP in FY19 on decline in oil prices: SBI research

26 Nov 2018 Evaluate

Expressing optimism over India’s fiscal position, State Bank of India (SBI) in its latest research report stated that the country’s current account deficit (CAD) is expected to come at 2.6% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the current fiscal as against an earlier expectation of 2.8%, following decline in oil prices. Besides, fiscal deficit in first half of FY19 has already reached 95.3% of full-year budget estimates (BE). As per the report, the recent decline in oil prices might compress the CAD by around $5-6 billion from their estimates of $78 billion.

The report noted that for the second year in succession, direct tax collections are likely to be higher than the budgeted targets by at least around Rs 20,000 crore. There will also be an additional Rs 14,000 crore surplus tax collections under customs duty. In terms of Goods and Services Tax (GST) receipts and excise duty, the report said the picture is not rosy. It said the Rs 20,000 crore collection under LTCG looks difficult to attain given the difficult market conditions.

On the subsidy front, the SBI research said the first six months have seen the total spending reaching 71% of the FY19 target. The significant moderation in oil prices observed lately may give a succour and the additional subsidy burden might be now restricted to Rs 11,720 crore or even less. On the expenditure side, it observed that the government has front loaded its capex (54% of BE during April-September 2018). This will possibly be reduced in the second half of FY19, and so, expenditure is the key to maintain fiscal prudence. It added that government may cut its expenditure by at least Rs 70,000 crore to meet budgeted fiscal deficit of 3.3%.

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