India’s GDP growth may decelerate to 7.5-7.6% in Q2FY19: SBI Research

27 Nov 2018 Evaluate

Just few days ahead of the release of second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), State Bank of India (SBI) in its latest research report stated that GDP growth of India is expected to decelerate to 7.5-7.6% in the July-September quarter (Q2) of current fiscal year, over the previous three-month period. It said the growth will be dented mainly due to slowdown in rural demand. The GDP growth at constant prices (2011-12) was 8.2% in the First quarter of 2018-19.

The SBI Ecowrap report stated that the SBI Composite Leading Indicator (CLI), a basket of 21 leading indicators for September quarter of the current fiscal, is showing a marginal declining trend. Consequently, the headline second quarter Gross Value Added (GVA) growth could be 7.3-7.4%, due to the slowing of rural demand. It also believes that the growth numbers in the second quarter will be helped by a weak base in September quarter 2017-18.

Ecowrap estimate that the base impact on second quarter GVA growth is around 30 bps. Based on tax collections, it subsequently expects second quarter GDP growth at 7.5-7.6%. It further said commercial vehicle sales, domestic air passenger traffic and cement production have maintained double-digit growth during July-September quarter. All these indicators pushed up GVA in the quarter.

However, the monthly data of various indicators for October 2018 suggest the GVA growth is slowing down due to decline in demand. It also said of particular concern, is that non-food credit, bank deposits and sale of passenger and commercial vehicles have slowed down as compared to previous month. It added that with a slowdown in government spending in the second quarter, the fiscal impulses to growth would now be clearly missing.

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