Expressing optimism over India’s growth, economic policy think-tank, the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) in its Mid-Year Review of the Economy projected that Indian economy is likely to grow at 7-7.4% in the current fiscal (FY19). It added that the real agriculture Gross Value Added (GVA) is envisaged to grow at 3% and real industry GVA at 7% in 2018-19. Besides, GVA forecast at basic prices is 7.0-7.4% and these forecasts at constant (2011-12) prices are based on NCAER's annual GDP macro model.
As per the report, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate at market prices estimated at 7.4-7.7% for 2018-19. The growth rates of exports and imports, in dollar terms, are estimated at 11.8% and 16.9%, respectively. The current account balance and central fiscal deficit, as percentages of GDP, are projected at (-) 2.3% and 3.2%, respectively. The economic policy think-tank said that based on its estimates, the combined output of kharif and rabi foodgrains during the current year may be in the region of 290 million tonnes, which is slightly higher than last year's record output. It also said the outlook for the Indian industrial sector remains mixed for current fiscal.
On the inflation front, it said almost all inflation metrics exhibited a decreasing trend after showing an uptick in the last quarter. This was largely due to the deflationary trend exhibited in food prices. It added that inflation is expected to fall further in the next quarter due to moderating fuel prices. The NCAER also pointed out that the softening of headline CPI inflation in October 2018 and slump in global crude oil prices along with the pullback of the rupee in November 2018, reduce the chance of a rate hike at the RBI's bimonthly monetary policy meeting to be held on December 5, 2018.
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