Post Session: Quick Review

Indian equity benchmarks managed to finish a volatile day of trade in green due to last-hour buying, with Sensex settling above crucial 36,200 mark, while Nifty ending just shy of 11,000 mark. Key indices made an optimistic start and traded in fine fettle, as traders took encouragement with economic policy think-tank the National Council of Applied Economic Research’s (NCAER) report stating that Indian economy is projected to grow at 7-7.4 per cent in the current fiscal. It added that the real agriculture Gross Value Added (GVA) is envisaged to grow at 3 per cent and real industry GVA at 7 per cent in 2018-19. As per the report, the forecast for Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices is 7.0-7.4 per cent. These forecasts at constant (2011-12) prices are based on NCAER's annual GDP macro model. Some support also came with report that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on November 29 relaxed rules for non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) to sell or securitise their loan books, in a bid to ease persistent stress in the sector.

In afternoon trade, markets shrugged off their gains and started trading in negative route, as investors have maintained cautious approach ahead of July-September quarter GDP data to be released later in the day. Some concerns also came in with a private report stating that India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to slow down to 7.4% in the July-September quarter of the current financial year, down by 0.8 percentage points from the previous quarter. Though, the selling proved short-lived as markets once again entered into green terrain and managed to keep their heads above water in dying hour of trade, as traders found solace with Chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to Prime Minister (EAC-PM) Bibek Debroy statement that the government is looking to reform tax structures such that there is no deviation from fiscal consolidation. Besides, the rupee showing gains against the US dollar on easing crude oil prices supported investors’ mood.

On the global front, Asian markets ended mixed on Friday, while European markets were trading in red, as investors await a closely watched meeting between the Chinese and US presidents in Argentina this weekend for signs of a trade war detente. Back home, banking stocks remained in focus with the RBI’s statement that Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) norms that mandate banks to maintain a stable funding profile in relation to the composition of their assets and off-balance sheet activities will be operational from April 2020. The NSFR is defined as the amount of available stable funding relative to the amount of required stable funding.

The BSE Sensex ended at 36242.63, up by 72.22 points or 0.20% after trading in a range of 36082.97 and 36389.22. There were 13 stocks advancing against 18 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The broader indices ended in green; the BSE Mid cap index rose 0.54%, while Small cap index was up by 0.51%. (Provisional)

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Realty up by 2.10%, Healthcare up by 1.73%, IT up by 1.13%, Consumer Disc up by 0.85% and TECK up by 0.80%, while Telecom down by 1.47%, PSU down by 1.00%, Oil & Gas down by 0.86%, Energy down by 0.66% and Metal down by 0.57% were the top losing indices on BSE. (Provisional)

The top gainers on the Sensex were Yes Bank up by 6.11%, Wipro up by 3.02%, Mahindra & Mahindra up by 2.44%, Kotak Mahindra Bank up by 1.90% and Sun Pharma up by 1.81%. (Provisional)

On the flip side, Tata Motors down by 2.99%, Tata Motors - DVR down by 2.24%, NTPC down by 2.14%, Indusind Bank down by 1.89% and ICICI Bank down by 1.85% were the top losers. (Provisional)

Meanwhile, expressing optimism over India’s growth, economic policy think-tank, the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) in its Mid-Year Review of the Economy projected that Indian economy is likely to grow at 7-7.4% in the current fiscal (FY19). It added that the real agriculture Gross Value Added (GVA) is envisaged to grow at 3% and real industry GVA at 7% in 2018-19. Besides, GVA forecast at basic prices is 7.0-7.4% and these forecasts at constant (2011-12) prices are based on NCAER's annual GDP macro model.

As per the report, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate at market prices estimated at 7.4-7.7% for 2018-19. The growth rates of exports and imports, in dollar terms, are estimated at 11.8% and 16.9%, respectively. The current account balance and central fiscal deficit, as percentages of GDP, are projected at (-) 2.3% and 3.2%, respectively. The economic policy think-tank said that based on its estimates, the combined output of kharif and rabi foodgrains during the current year may be in the region of 290 million tonnes, which is slightly higher than last year's record output. It also said the outlook for the Indian industrial sector remains mixed for current fiscal.

On the inflation front, it said almost all inflation metrics exhibited a decreasing trend after showing an uptick in the last quarter. This was largely due to the deflationary trend exhibited in food prices. It added that inflation is expected to fall further in the next quarter due to moderating fuel prices. The NCAER also pointed out that the softening of headline CPI inflation in October 2018 and slump in global crude oil prices along with the pullback of the rupee in November 2018, reduce the chance of a rate hike at the RBI's bimonthly monetary policy meeting to be held on December 5, 2018.

The CNX Nifty ended at 10886.35, up by 27.65 points or 0.25% after trading in a range of 10835.10 and 10922.45. There were 22 stocks advancing against 28 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The top gainers on Nifty were Yes Bank up by 6.29%, Wipro up by 3.24%, Cipla up by 3.08%, Dr. Reddys Lab up by 2.91% and Tech Mahindra up by 2.90%. (Provisional)

On the flip side, HPCL down by 4.10%, Bharti Infratel down by 3.79%, Tata Motors down by 2.91%, UPL down by 2.58% and Indusind Bank down by 1.82% were the top losers. (Provisional)

European markets were trading in red; UK’s FTSE 100 decreased 52.57 points or 0.75% to 6,986.38, France’s CAC fell 23.70 points or 0.48% to 4,982.55 and Germany’s DAX shed 72.04 points or 0.64% to 11,226.19.

Asian markets ended mixed on Friday as minutes from the most recent Fed meeting added weight to expectations for a rate hike in December and caution set in ahead of the highly-anticipated meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit in Argentina this weekend. Chinese shares ended higher, despite some disappointing data, suggesting that China's manufacturing activity continued to worsen in November. The manufacturing PMI stood at 50.0 in November, missing expectations for a score of 50.2, which would have been unchanged from the October reading. The non-manufacturing PMI came in with a score of 53.4 - also shy of expectations for 53.8 and down from 53.9 in the previous month. The composite index posted a score of 52.8, down from 53.1 a month earlier. Meanwhile, Japanese shares hit a three-week high in cautious trade as investors awaited the outcome of the weekend meeting between the US and Chinese presidents.