Crisil lowers India’s GDP growth forecast by 10 bps to 7.4% for FY19

04 Dec 2018 Evaluate

Citing weak Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and forecasts of lower global trade, rating agency Crisil in its latest report has lowered India’s economic growth forecast by 10 basis points (bps) to 7.4% for the current fiscal year (FY19), from 7.5% forecasted earlier. Besides, the country’s growth in the July-September quarter slipped to 7.1% from 8.2% in the April-June quarter.

Crisil also projected that India's export, which saw a revival in early part of 2018, could likely see a slower growth. It further said that the forecast has a downward bias given that global growth prospects are turning weaker than estimated earlier. Also, if liquidity issues persist in the financial system, demand could get further dented. The report noted that for the rest of the current financial year, growth will find support from private consumption, driven by continues government spending on construction activities, benign inflation and revision in government salaries at the state level.

However, the rating agency said that despite the downward revision at 7.4%, India's growth in the financial year 2019 will be faster than both, the 6.7% seen in financial year 2018 and the trend rate of growth. It said the long-term average growth rate seen in the last 13 years, as per the recently released GDP back series data is 6.9%.

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