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CAD likely to rise to 3% of GDP in Q2FY19 on high crude prices, gold imports: ICRA

04 Dec 2018 Evaluate

ICRA in its latest report has said it is expecting that India’s current account deficit (CAD) will rise to 3% of Gross domestic product (GDP) in the July-September quarter of current financial year (Q2FY19), from 2.4% in the preceding quarter, driven mainly by high crude oil prices and gold imports. The rating agency expects the CAD to widen sharply to $19-21 billion in Q2 (July-September) FY19, from the modest $7 billion in Q2 FY18.

It further said that CAD is likely to widen to $68-73 billion in FY 19 from $48.7 billion in FY18, if the price of the Indian basket of crude oil averages at $72/barrel in FY2019. Besides, the CAD, which is the difference between the inflow and outflow of foreign currency, stood at 1.9% of GDP in FY18 and 0.6% of GDP in FY17. However, it noted that the subsequent correction in crude oil prices has eased concerns regarding the size of the current account deficit in October-March period of current fiscal.

Additionally, the report highlighted that India’s net import bill related to petroleum, crude and crude related products increased by a sharp 60% to $23 billion in Q2 FY19, from $14 billion in the same period last fiscal following the year-on-year surge in crude oil prices. Meanwhile, gold imports rose by 61% to $9 billion in Q2FY19, from $6 billion in the year-ago period. These two item groups account for around 80% of the rise in India's merchandise trade deficit in the Q2FY19, relative to the year-ago quarter.

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