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India's export growth to surge 7% in Q3FY19: Exim Bank

18 Dec 2018 Evaluate

Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) has said that exports growth rate in India will surge to 7 percent in Q3 (October- December) 2018-19. The release of the estimates, done by the city-headquartered policy bank using in-house modelling method, comes days after official data showed the country’s merchandise exports grew by a meagre 0.80 percent to $26.5 billion in November, mainly due to a high base effect. It has pointed out that a double-digit contraction in exports of gems and jewellery and engineering goods in November, which impacted the overall growth.

The Exim Bank estimate said merchandise exports will go up to $82.39 billion for the third quarter of the fiscal year, as against $ 77 billion. It also noted that non-oil exports will grow 7.20 percent to $71.45 billion during the same period, as against the $66.65 billion in the year-ago period.

Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an export leading index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI modelling will keep getting updated and the findings will be released by the bank on a regular basis. The model and forecast have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts.

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