Unexpected surge in crude prices may trouble India’s economy: RBI

07 Jan 2019 Evaluate

Expressing concerns over growth of India, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) warned that a sudden surge in crude prices can upset the country’s key macro-stability parameters, as it can sharply spike the current account deficit (CAD), inflation and the fiscal numbers, whittling the benefits of higher growth. It added that since the country is heavily dependent on oil imports to the tune of over 80% for meeting its domestic demand, it remains susceptible to global crude price shocks. Besides CAD, rise in crude prices can also impact inflation and fiscal deficit.

The international crude prices increased by around 12% between April and September 2018. The mid-year spike in crude prices happened mainly due to spurt in demand, on the back of global growth revival, and partly due to geopolitical risks that led to supply-side shocks. However, since mid-November 2018, the crude prices have declined significantly but they remain volatile.

As per the RBI study, crude price shock will increase inflation, if the price increase is passed on directly to the final consumers. It added that under the most conservative estimate, they quantify that a $10/barrel increase in crude price at the price of $65/barrel will lead to a 49 basis points increase in headline inflation. A similar increase at $55/barrel gives around a 58 bps increase in headline inflation.

The Central Bank further said if the government decides on a zero pass-through to the final consumers, a $10/barrel spike in crude prices could increase the fiscal deficit by 43 bps. This zero pass-through scenario allows us to put an upper band on the amount of fiscal slippage. It concluded that the actual inflation and fiscal deficit will finally depend on the level of government intervention (changes in tax and subsidy) in the domestic oil market.

© 2026 The Alchemists Ark Pvt. Ltd. All rights reserved. MoneyWorks4Me ® is a registered trademark of The Alchemists Ark Pvt. Ltd.

×