Benchmarks trade slightly in green in early deals

Paring initial losses, Indian equity benchmarks turned green and are trading with marginal gains in early deals on Tuesday. Traders took some encouragement with the central statistics office’s (CSO) latest data showing that Indian economy is expected to grow at 7.2% in 2018-19, a tad higher from 6.7% in the previous fiscal, mainly due to improvement in the performance of agriculture and manufacturing sectors. Besides, describing the 7.2% GDP growth projection for 2018-19 as very healthy, Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg said India remains to be the fastest growing economy in the world. However, gains remain capped with Crisil’s report that India Inc is set to report a decline in both revenue as well as profit growth numbers in the December quarter. It said revenue growth will dip by up to 5 percentage points on average to 12-13%.  Traders also remained cautious with a report that the growth in direct tax collection in the first nine months of the year was marginally lower than the rate of 14.4% required to meet the budget estimate of Rs 11.5 lakh crore for direct taxes in FY19. The net (post-refunds) direct tax collection for April-December period this fiscal was Rs 7.43 lakh crore, up 13.6% from the year-ago period.

On the global front, Asian markets are trading mostly in green at this point of time tracking overnight rise on the Wall Street, where equities rallied on optimism fresh talks on trade will be productive. The US markets ended higher on Monday as gains in the technology and consumer discretionary sectors helped extend Friday’s rally, with investors focused on the ongoing US-China trade talks.

Back home, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank will take steps if there is a shortage of liquidity in the economy though the current cash needs are largely met. Pointing out that liquidity in the system is regularly monitored, Das said the RBI will take steps whenever there is any deficit. In scrip specific developments, Tata Motors gained with its arm reporting 14,079 units US sales for December 2018 and Lupin edged higher on getting USFDA’s approval for Lurasidone Hydrochloride Tab.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 35880.88, up by 30.72 points or 0.09% after trading in a range of 35753.95 and 35968.08. There were 19 stocks advancing against 11 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading mixed; the BSE Mid cap index slipped 0.02%, while Small cap index was up by 0.28%.

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Telecom up by 1.38%, Realty up by 0.71%, Metal up by 0.56%, Healthcare up by 0.51% and Auto was up by 0.38%, while Utilities down by 0.21%, IT down by 0.13%, Power down by 0.12%, Consumer Durables down by 0.08% and Energy was down by 0.07% were the top losing indices on BSE.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Tata Motors up by 2.48%, Yes Bank up by 1.90%, Tata Motors - DVR up by 1.81%, Bharti Airtel up by 1.71% and Sun Pharma up by 1.48%. On the flip side, HDFC Bank down by 0.61%, Kotak Mahindra Bank down by 0.61%, Power Grid Corporation down by 0.55%, Axis Bank down by 0.54% and HDFC down by 0.41% were the top losers.

Meanwhile, the Central Statistics Office (CSO), under Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, in its First Advance Estimates of National Income, 2018-19, has stated that India’s economic growth is expected to grow at 7.2% in the current fiscal year (FY19), a tad higher from 6.7% in the previous fiscal, mainly due to improvement in the performance of agriculture and manufacturing sectors. Though, the growth estimate is bit lower than 7.4% growth projected by the Reserve Bank for FY19. The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 7.1% in 2016-17 and 8.2% in 2015-16.

As per the data, real GDP at Constant Prices (2011-12) in the year 2018-19 is likely to attain a level of Rs 139.52 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2017-18 of Rs 130.11 lakh crore, released on May 31, 2018. Real GVA, i.e, GVA at Basic Constant Prices (2011-12) is anticipated to increase from Rs 119.76 lakh crore in 2017-18 to Rs 128.09 lakh crore in 2018-19. Anticipated growth of real GVA at Basic Prices in 2018-19 is 7.0% as against 6.5% in 2017-18.

Among the sectors, the expansion in activities in 'agriculture, forestry and fishing' is likely to increase to 3.8% in the current fiscal from 3.4% in the preceding year. The growth of the manufacturing sector is expected to accelerate to 8.3% this fiscal, up from 5.7% in 2017-18. However, the mining and quarrying sector growth rate is estimated to decline from 2.9% in 2017-18 to 0.8% in current fiscal. Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting will too witness deceleration to 6.9% from 8% in the previous fiscal. The growth rate of public administration, defence and other services will also dip to 8.9% from 10% last fiscal.

Besides, electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services growth is estimated at 9.4% in 2018-19, up from 7.2% in the last fiscal. Similarly, the construction sector is expected to grow at 8.9% from 5.7% previous fiscal. Financial, real estate & professional services' growth will be a tad higher at 6.8% this fiscal against 6.6% in 2017-18.

The per capita net national income during 2018-19 will be Rs 1,25,397, showing a rise of 11.1% as compared to Rs 1,12,835 during 2017-18 with the growth rate of 8.6%. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), a barometer of investment, at current prices is estimated at Rs 55.58 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against Rs 47.79 lakh crore in 2017-18. At Constant (2011-12) Prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs 45.86 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against Rs 40.88 lakh crore in 2017-18. The Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at Current Prices is estimated at Rs 21.70 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against Rs 19.08 lakh crore in 2017-18. At Constant (2011-12) Prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs 15.28 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against Rs 14.0 lakh crore in 2017- 18.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 10785.55, up by 13.75 points or 0.13% after trading in a range of 10733.25 and 10786.45. There were 31 stocks advancing against 19 stocks declining on the index.

The top gainers on Nifty were Tata Motors up by 2.37%, Eicher Motors up by 1.96%, Yes Bank up by 1.63%, Indiabulls Housing up by 1.60% and Bharti Airtel up by 1.57%. On the flip side, UPL down by 0.76%, Zee Entertainment down by 0.75%, BPCL down by 0.63%, Kotak Mahindra Bank down by 0.61% and GAIL India down by 0.59% were the top losers.

Asian markets are trading mostly in green; Nikkei 225 surged 209.71 points or 1.05% to 20,248.68, Straits Times gained 6.63 points or 0.21% to 3,109.43, Hang Seng rose 70.12 points or 0.27% to 25,905.82 and Jakarta Composite was up by 0.68 points or 0.01% to 6,287.90.

On the flip side, Taiwan Weighted slipped 24.31 points or 0.25% to 9,565.99, Kospi dipped 3.19 points or 0.16% to 2,033.91 and Shanghai Composite was down by 5.14 points or 0.20% to 2,527.95.