Service sector activity nudges lower in June; registers ninth straight month of growth momentum

03 Aug 2012 Evaluate

Service sector activity in India expanded in the month of July, but at a rate that was slightly lower than previous month levels. Though the sector extended its growth momentum for the ninth straight month, but grew at a steady place in July, with growth in new orders and employment holding up. The survey showed order books grew at the same clip as in June, prompting businesses to increase their workforces at a similar pace as in the previous month.

According to the seasonally adjusted HSBC Business Activity Index, the service sector activity dipped to 54.2 in July, as against 54.3 in the previous month. A figure above 50 signals increase in production while, a number below 50 indicates contraction. Besides, the lower growth in service sector in the month under review, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) reading, which measures the overall health of manufacturing sector, though increased at a marked pace, but the slowest since November 2011.

New orders at private sector companies in India rose steeply in July. However, the pace of increase slowed from that recorded in June, with the new orders Index plunging to the lowest since November 2011. Meanwhile, job creation was recorded at manufacturers and service providers during July. The pace of job creation increase was broadly similar across both sectors, resulting in a slight rise in workforces at Indian private sector firms.

Extending the current inflationary period to 40 months, the composite data posted a further increase in input costs, as the input prices rose sharply at manufacturers in India and at a faster pace than the rise recorded at service providers. But the rate of input cost inflation was at the slowest in 21 months, i.e. since October 2010. Meanwhile, service sector business expectations remained optimistic, although the level of optimism dipped to the lowest since March.

Thus, the subdued Manufacturing and Service sector PMI have dragged the HSBC Composite Index, which covers the manufacturing and service sectors, to 54.4 in July from 55.7 seen in June 2012, the lowest expansion pace past April 2012. However, the HSBC survey further indicated that though the inflation readings eased, but remain firm on the back of rising wage costs and solid demand. Thus, with inflation risks still lingering despite the slowdown and policy action out of Delhi so far insufficient, the RBI has little room to manoeuvre. Indian central bank although left key interest rates unchanged in its recent monetary policy review meet on July 31, but did slashed the Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) of scheduled commercial banks from 24% to 23% of their NDTL with effect from the fortnight beginning August 11, 2012.

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