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ISMA revises downward sugar output estimates at 30.7 MT for 2018-19

21 Jan 2019 Evaluate

The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), industry body, has once again lowered the sugar output estimation at 30.7 million tonne (MT) for the ongoing marketing year 2018-19, on the back of diversion for ethanol making. The industry body, in July 2018, had projected an all-time high sugar output of 35 MT in the current marketing year, compared with 32.5 MT achieved in 2017-18. However, the estimate was revised downward to 31.5 MT in October last year factoring in likely crop damage owing to untimely rains and pest attack in some states.

ISMA, revising downward the estimate by 2.53%, said sugar production is estimated to be around 30.7 MT in the current marketing year taking into account expected yield, sugar recovery in the balance period of this year. This is after considering estimated diversion of 5 lakh tonne of sugar into production of ethanol through 'B' heavy molasses. Meanwhile, till January 15 of this marketing year, mills produced 14.68 MT of the sweetener, compared with 13.55 MT in the year-ago. Mills in Uttar Pradesh, the country's largest sugar-producing state, produced 4.19 MT, while Maharashtra at 5.72 MT and Karnataka at 2.67 MT till January 15 of this year. This is because the mills have started earlier this season, even though the whole year's sugar production will be less than last year's.

According to the revised estimate, overall sugar output in Uttar Pradesh is pegged lower at 11.28 MT in the current year from 12 MT achieved in the previous year. The estimate for Maharashtra remains unchanged at 9.5 MT from the previous one, but lower than 10.7 MT of the actual output achieved in the previous year. The production estimate for Karnataka has been kept at 4.2 MT for the current year, higher than 3.75 million tonnes achieved in the previous year. Production in other states (Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Bihar, Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Uttarakhand) is pegged at 6.2 MT for this year, about 2,50,000 tonne more than the previous year.

On the exports front, ISMA said it could reach 3-3.5 MT in the current marketing year (October-September) against the mandatory quota of 5 MT unless the export quota is backed up by the government with some force or penalty for the sugar mills who are not exporting against their quotas. Besides, cane arrear was Rs 19,000 crore till December 2018.

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ISMA revises downward sugar output estimates at 30.7 MT for 2018-19

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