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Fiscal deficit to exceed budgeted target to 3.6% of GDP in FY20: Fitch Solutions

05 Feb 2019 Evaluate

Fitch Group’s research arm - Fitch Solutions in a note titled 'India's Populist FY2019-20 Budget To Delay Fiscal Consolidation' has projected the government's fiscal deficit to exceed the budgeted target by 0.2 percent to 3.6 percent of Gross domestic product (GDP) in the financial year 2020. It said “we believe that expenditure growth will exceed the government's projections, giving our expectation for high election spending and the budget speech's repeated emphasis that 'if necessary, additional funds will be provided'.

Additionally, it said that the government's revenue growth projections also appear too positive given its sweeping tax rebates for the middle class and small business. It also said that the central government plans to spend a total of Rs 27.8 lakh crore in fiscal 2019-20, a 13.3 percent rise over the 2018-19 revised budget estimates. It believed that continued fiscal stimulus by the central government will see the government miss its goal of reducing its fiscal deficit to 3 percent of GDP by FY20-21.

Fitch Group arm further said that although agriculture, rural development and transport infrastructure remain the largest expenditure areas, the budget speech focused heavily on agriculture, social welfare, education, and healthcare, likely aimed at appealing to members of scheduled castes and scheduled tribes, which form 25 percent of the total population, and farmers, which account for 58 percent of India's labour force. It also indicated that agriculture spending as a proportion of total expenditures grew to 5.4 percent in 2019-20, from 3.5 percent in the 2018-19 revised budget estimates, which suggests a populist shift in the government's expenditure patterns.

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