Economic growth in 12th plan likely to be less than 9%

11 Aug 2011 Evaluate

On the back of global uncertainty, the Planning Commission indicated that it may reduce the average annual economic growth target for the 12th Five Year Plan (2012-17). The planning commission had earlier set the target of 9 to 9.5% however, due to the global turmoil it has lowered to 8.5 to 8.7%. The Minister of State for Planning Ashwani Kumar said, ‘we had projected 9.5% growth for the 12th Plan and then we scaled it down to nine percent... But, on Wednesday, I don’t feel it will be nine percent... But we will definitely move to 8.5%, 8.6%, or 8.7%.’

According to the planning commission, even to achieve 9% annual average growth in the next five year plan, would require strong policy action. The lack of political accord between government and the opposition parties are the reason for the slow decision on the policy front. Many policy implementations, such as Gross Service Tax and Direct Tax Code bill, have been delayed due to lack of political agreement. Ashwani Kumar said ‘Political instability does create doubts in the mind of investors. Hence, opposition members should play its part in reducing this instability.’  However, minister accepted that the decision making should be streamlined and made faster to promote higher growth.

Earlier, the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council had also raised the issue of reducing investors’ confidence.  For the current five year plan (2007-08 to 2011-12) the Planning Commission had projected economy to grow by 9% per annum. However, due to global financial crisis, the Planning Commission had reduced the growth projection to 8.1 %. In the first four years of the plan, economy had registered average annual growth of 8.15%. 

The ministry of finance is likely to reduce the growth projection for the current financial year, after the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures is out on August 30. Even if the ministry of finance reduces the growth target to 8.1% from 9%, the planning commission’s target of 8.1% would be met.

Ashwani Kumar said despite the trouble in the US economy and downturn in the Euro zone, the Indian economy would grow by 8.2% during the current financial year. He also expressed his confidence that the Indian economy, with its strong fundamentals, would weather the storm created by the downgrade of US credit rating by Standard & Poor’s.

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