Ahead of the Central Statistics Office’s (CSO) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data release, the State Bank of India (SBI) Research in its latest report has said that Indian economy is likely to grow in the range of 6.6-6.7 percent during the third quarter of the current fiscal year 2018-19 (FY19). It added that for the full financial year, the growth will be 7.2 percent. Besides, the report said that the CSO has recently revised GDP growth for FY18 from 6.7 percent earlier to 7.2 percent. At this rate, FY19 growth rate would have been at 5.9 percent (earlier 7.2 percent).
The yearly SBI composite index for February saw a marginally rise to 50.60 (a score of under 50 indicates negative growth). The index remained volatile and declined to 11-month low of 46.10 (low decline) in February from 52.8 (moderate growth) in January. SBI Research said based on the annual performance of these leading indicators, they are expecting GDP to grow around 6.6-6.7 percent in the December quarter.
However, SBI Research believes the GDP deflator which is at 4.1 percent now, could be revised downwards by at least 50 bps, thus pushing GDP close to 7.2 percent in FY19. With the decline in index, the report said that Index of Industrial Production (IIP) manufacturing may grow at 1.5 percent and overall IIP at 2.5 percent in February. On the Goods and Services Tax (GST) front, it expects total GST collection for February to be at Rs 95,500 crore, significantly lower than Rs 1.05 lakh crore in the previous month.
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