Fitch lowers India's GDP growth forecast to 6.8% for FY20

22 Mar 2019 Evaluate

Fitch Ratings in its Global Economic Outlook has lowered India’s Gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 6.8% for fiscal year 2020  from 7% estimated earlier, on the back of weaker than expected momentum in the economy. It said “while we have cut our growth forecasts for the next fiscal year (FY20, ending in March 2020) on weaker-than-expected momentum, we still see Indian GDP growth to hold up reasonably well, at 6.8%, followed by 7.1% in FY21.”

Earlier, in December, the rating agency cut the GDP growth forecast of the country to 7.2% for FY19 from 7.8%, citing higher financing cost and reduced credit availability. It has also cut growth forecasts for FY20 and FY21 to 7% from 7.3% and 7.1 percent from 7.3%, respectively. 

According to Fitch, the RBI has adopted a more dovish monetary policy stance and cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage at its February 2019 meeting, a move supported by steadily decelerating headline inflation. It said “we have changed our rate outlook and we now expect another 25 bp cut in 2019, amid protracted below target inflation and easier global monetary conditions than previously envisaged.” On the fiscal side, it noted that the budget for FY20 plans to increase cash transfers for farmers.

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