The rating agency ICRA in its latest report has said that the Reliance Jio-induced pains for the telecom sector will continue with the industry slated to report fall in revenue for 3rd straight year in FY19. It noted that the stiff competition after the launch of Jio has continued and the pricing pressure manifested in severe deterioration in the financial performance, marked by decline in revenues, lower profitability (even losses for some telecom companies) and low cash generation.
According to the report, after the 11 percent decline in revenues in FY18 to Rs 2.1 lakh crore, the industry top-line is expected to further dip by 7 percent in FY19. However, it also expects a 6 percent growth in FY20. From a profitability perspective, it said the operating profit decline is expected to narrow to 18 percent in FY19 from the 21 percent decline in the previous fiscal. Though, it added that the same is expected to go up by 20 percent in FY20.
ICRA further said that there is room for a minor recovery in the upcoming fiscal year 2019-20. It noted that FY20 can witness the benefits of higher data usage, and a relatively more consolidated and stable industry structure resulting in some pricing discipline. It also said in FY20, operators will be bolstered by the planned deleveraging initiatives to the tune of Rs 90,000-1 lakh crore. It added that the overall debt for the sector will come down to Rs 4.3 lakh crore in end FY20 from the Rs 4.75 lakh crore expected in March 2019.
Based on the December quarter trends, ICRA said the decline in ARPU (average revenue per user) has been arrested and the incumbent operators are looking for triggers of upward movement, with some operators implementing minimum recharge plans. It informed that the government also stands to lose out in the process as non-tax revenues earned by it in terms of license fee and spectrum usage charges will go down.
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