Benchmarks start F&O expiry session on optimistic note

Indian equity benchmarks started the March F&O expiry session on an optimistic note with frontline gauges recapturing their crucial 11,500 (Nifty) and 38,300 (Sensex) levels. Sentiments remained upbeat with report that India's monsoon, crucial for Asia's third largest economy, is likely to be a robust and healthy one this year provided there isn't a surprise El Nino phenomenon. Monsoon rains, the lifeblood for India's farm-dependent $2.6 trillion economy, arrive on the southern tip of Kerala state around June 1. Traders remain energized with a report that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to cut repo rate by 25 basis points in the April policy due to weak economic activity. The monetary policy committee is scheduled to meet from April 2 to 4. Traders shrugged off report that there is a shortfall in income tax collections. Progress in tax collection has been reviewed as against the targeted Rs 12 lakh crore. Only 85.1% of the targeted or Rs 10.21 lakh crore has been collected as of March 23.

On the global front, Asian markets are exhibiting mixed trend following an overnight slip on Wall Street after the closely-watched 10-year Treasury yield touched its lowest in more than a year. The US markets ended Wednesday’s choppy session lower with lingering worries over the economic growth outlook.

Back home, stocks related to hotel industry remained in focus with ICRA's report that the domestic hotel industry is expected to register a top line growth of 10-11% in 2019 than the earlier expectation of 8.5%. In scrip specific developments, PFC gained as its board set overall borrowing limit at Rs 81,000 crore for FY20 and Vedanta edged higher on discovering oil in Krishna-Godavari basin block.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 38351.80, up by 218.92 points or 0.57% after trading in a range of 38148.44 and 38379.80. There were 22 stocks advancing against 9 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index gained 0.57%, while Small cap index was up by 0.72%.

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Realty up by 2.01%, IT up by 1.66%, TECK up by 1.42%, Consumer Durables up by 0.76% and Industrials was up by 0.69%, while Telecom down by 0.38% and Metal was down by 0.29% were the only losing indices on BSE.

The top gainers on the Sensex were HCL Tech up by 3.22%, Yes Bank up by 2.00%, Infosys up by 1.77%, TCS up by 1.39% and Sun Pharma up by 1.27%. On the flip side, ONGC down by 1.81%, Bharti Airtel down by 1.01%, Power Grid Corporation down by 0.72%, Mahindra & Mahindra down by 0.71% and Tata Steel down by 0.67% were the top losers.

Meanwhile, expressing optimism over monsoon condition this year, the India Meteorological Department’s director general, K.J. Ramesh has said that India's monsoon is likely to be a robust and healthy one this year provided there is not a surprise El Nino phenomenon. Monsoon rains, is crucial for the country and it is also a lifeblood for farm, is likely to arrive on the southern tip of Kerala state on around June 1 and retreat from the desert state of Rajasthan by September.

Ramesh said ‘It's really early to talk about the pattern that this year's monsoon will follow, but we do know that practically no one is predicting a strong El Nino.’ Plentiful monsoon rains could lift agricultural and wider economic growth and keep food prices and overall inflation subdued. He added that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenon could also be a positive development.

The IMD defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 percent and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 89 cm for the entire four-month season beginning in June. In 2017 and 2018, rainfall was 95% and 91% of the long-term average, respectively. The IMD is likely to make its first official forecast of this year's monsoon rains by the middle of April.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 11510.65, up by 65.60 points or 0.57% after trading in a range of 11452.45 and 11521.25. There were 37 stocks advancing against 12 stocks declining on the index.

The top gainers on Nifty were HCL Tech up by 3.15%, Adani Ports & SEZ up by 2.24%, Yes Bank up by 1.84%, Infosys up by 1.74% and Tech Mahindra up by 1.73%. On the flip side, ONGC down by 1.84%, Dr. Reddys Lab down by 1.20%, Hindalco down by 1.08%, JSW Steel down by 0.75% and Bharti Airtel down by 0.71% were the top losers.

Asian markets are trading mixed, Nikkei 225 declined 282.32 points or 1.32% to 21,096.41, Taiwan Weighted slipped 20.18 points or 0.19% to 10,522.52, KOSPI shed 12.62 points or 0.59% to 2,133.00 and Shanghai Composite was down by 7.89 points or 0.26% to 3,014.83.

On the flip side, Straits Times gained 7.94 points or 0.25% to 3,206.33, Hang Seng increased 7.88 points or 0.03% to 28,736.13 and Jakarta Composite was up by 2.88 points or 0.04% to 6,447.62.