Food inflation spikes up at 4-1/2-month high of 9.90% for the week ended July 30

11 Aug 2011 Evaluate

Prolonging the previous week's uptrend, India’s food inflation measured by Wholesale Price Index (WPI) has spiked up at 4-1/2-month high of 9.90% for the week ended July 30 from 8.04% in the last week on the back of costlier onions, fruits, vegetables and protein-based items.

According to the data released by Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the index for Food Articles group rose by 1.6% to 195.3(Provisional)  from 192.2 for the previous week due to higher prices of fish-inland (17%), poultry chicken and fish-marine (4% each), ragi and fruits and vegetables (2% each) and rice, coffee and gram (1% each). However, the prices of egg, mutton, urad and arhar (1% each) declined.

Meanwhile, the index for 'Non-Food Articles' rose by 0.5% to 175.8 (Provisional) from 174.9 in the previous week due to higher prices of gaur seed and coir fibre (7% each), soyabean (5%), castor seed and gingelly seed (4% each), niger seed (3%), sunflower and rape and mustard seed (2% each) and copra, cotton seed and raw cotton (1% each). 

More importantly, the index for primary articles group which has the highest weightage of 20.12% in WPI rose by 1.2% for the week at 199.3 (Provisional) from 196.9 in the previous week. The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point to point basis, stood at 12.22% (Provisional) for the week ended June 30, 2011 as compared to 10.99% for the previous week ended July 23, 2011. 

Additionally, the index for Fuel & Power group which has the weightage of 14.91% in WPI rose by 0.1% to 165.7 (Provisional) from 165.6 for the previous week due to higher prices of lubricants (2%). Meanwhile, the annual rate of inflation, calculated on point to point basis, stood at 12.19% (Provisional) for the week as compared to 12.12% for the previous week.

The latest numbers are likely to put further pressure on the government and the Reserve Bank, who have been battling the high rate of price rise over a period of one-and-a-half years. Further to add on to the pressure, this is the highest rate of price rise in food items since the week ended March 12, when food inflation stood at 10.05%. India’s central bank so far has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2010 to tame headline inflation, which quickened to 9.44% in June.

Also, in its Economic Outlook for 2011-12 released earlier this month, the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council projected headline inflation to remain high at around 9% till October. He said that the rate of price rise will ease from November, declining to around 6.5% by March 2012. However, the report also stated that while pressure from food inflation has fallen in recent months, the rate of price rice still remains quite high, with the possibility of a further surge in coming months.

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