Post Session: Quick Review

Indian equity benchmarks swung between green and red for most part of the day and witnessed sudden spike in final hour of trade which helped to close the session near of the day’s high. After making a cautious start, markets gained traction and traded in fine fettle, as traders took encouragement with the World Bank’s report stating that India's GDP growth is expected to accelerate moderately to 7.5 per cent in Fiscal Year 19-20, driven by continued investment strengthening, particularly private-improved export performance and resilient consumption. Data for the first three quarters suggest that growth has been broad-based. Industrial growth accelerated to 7.9 per cent, making up for a deceleration in services.

However, key indices pared all of their early gains to trade flat as investors braced for March quarter corporate earnings beginning this week. IT majors TCS and Infosys will report their Q4 numbers on April 12. Markets added some losses in the afternoon session with a report that Indian economy may be moving towards a slowdown as the country has off-late witnessed a drop in several key economic indicators. After a fall in auto sales, a shortfall in collection of direct taxes among others, now household savings in the country too have declined. Moreover, a further rise in crude oil prices owing to concerns over exports from the war-torn Libya affected the market sentiment. Traders also took a note of private report that India's retail inflation is expected to have accelerated in March on slightly higher food prices but remain under the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4 percent.

Erasing losses, key indices staged smart recovery in the late hours of trade and settled with decent gains as sentiments turned optimistic amid reports World Bank’s report that India retained its position as the world's top recipient of remittances with its diaspora sending a whopping $79 billion back home in 2018. India was followed by China ($67 billion), Mexico ($36 billion), the Philippines ($34 billion), and Egypt ($29 billion). Adding to the optimism, Prime Minister Narendra sought another term to set on track the transformation of the country as a developed nation by 2047 when India completes 100 years of Independence.

On the global front, Asian markets ended mostly in green, while European markets were trading in green as dealers await the latest developments in the China-US trade talks. Investors also look ahead to a key European Union summit that will decide Britain's immediate future in the bloc. Back home, the BSE Sensex ended at 38964.36, up by 263.83 points or 0.68% after trading in a range of 38598.72 and 38978.99. There were 26 stocks advancing against 5 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The broader indices ended mixed; the BSE Mid cap index rose 0.16%, while Small cap index was down by 0.13%. (Provisional)

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Auto up by 1.33%, Realty up by 1.30%, Bankex up by 1.20%, Metal up by 1.07% and PSU up by 0.73%, while Telecom down by 0.81% and Consumer Durables down by 0.35% were the few losing indices on BSE. (Provisional)

The top gainers on the Sensex were Yes Bank up by 4.13%, Tata Motors up by 3.02%, Tata Motors - DVR up by 2.76%, ICICI Bank up by 2.70% and Bajaj Auto up by 2.44%. (Provisional)

On the flip side, Asian Paints down by 3.05%, Infosys down by 1.06%, Bharti Airtel down by 0.75%, Bajaj Finance down by 0.39% and ONGC down by 0.25% were the top losers. (Provisional)

Meanwhile, the World Bank in its latest report on South Asia has said that India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to accelerate moderately to 7.5% in the fiscal year 2019-20 (FY20), supported by continued investment strengthening, particularly private-improved export performance and resilient consumption. It added that the real GDP growth is estimated at 7.2% in 2018-19. Its data for the first three quarters suggested that growth has been broad-based. Industrial growth accelerated to 7.9%, making up for a deceleration in services. Meanwhile, agriculture growth was robust at 4%.

On the demand side, the report has said that domestic consumption remained the primary growth driver, but gross fixed capital formation and exports both made growing contributions. Over the last quarter, growth is expected to remain balanced across sectors. Inflation dynamics have been subdued over most of FY19. Besides, with robust growth, and food prices poised to recover, inflation is expected to converge towards 4% and added that both the current account and the fiscal deficit are expected to narrow.

On the external front, World Bank has said improvements in India’s export performance and low oil prices should bring about a reduction in the current account deficit to 1.9% of the GDP. On the internal front, the consolidated fiscal deficit is projected to decline, albeit slowly (to 6.2 and 6% of the GDP in FY20 and FY21, respectively). As the Centre’s deficit is budgeted to remain unchanged at 3.4% of GDP in FY19/20, the burden of adjustment will rest on the states. It noted that a sustained decline in food prices since July 2018, subsequently complemented by the softening of oil prices and concomitant appreciation of the rupee, has led to a steady decline in inflation.

The CNX Nifty ended at 11682.05, up by 77.55 points or 0.67% after trading in a range of 11569.70 and 11683.90. There were 37 stocks advancing against 13 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The top gainers on Nifty were Yes Bank up by 4.27%, Wipro up by 3.87%, Tata Motors up by 3.37%, ICICI Bank up by 2.66% and Bajaj Auto up by 2.54%. (Provisional)

On the flip side, Indiabulls Housing Finance down by 3.36%, Asian Paints down by 3.11%, Infosys down by 0.80%, Bharti Airtel down by 0.76% and Dr. Reddys Lab down by 0.50% were the top losers. (Provisional)

European markets were trading in green; UK’s FTSE 100 increased 22.08 points or 0.3% to 7,473.97, France’s CAC rose 18.44 points or 0.34% to 5,490.22 and Germany’s DAX was up by 22.24 points or 0.19% to 11,985.64.

Asian markets ended mostly higher on Tuesday as investors watched for Brexit developments and corporate earnings. Investors looked ahead to developments in Britain’s contentious move toward leaving the European Union, a mid-week meeting by the European Central Bank and the release of minutes from the latest US Federal Reserve meeting. Japanese shares ended a choppy session higher as investors braced for a slew of earnings announcements. Though, Chinese shares ended lower on profit taking as investors awaited more clarity in trade negotiations with Washington.