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PM panel prunes 2012-13 GDP forecast to 6.7%

17 Aug 2012 Evaluate

Foreseeing global headwinds, sluggish policymaking, high interest rates and worries about a drought in parts of the country suppressing investment and demand, the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) slashed its economic growth projections for the current fiscal to 6.7% from an earlier 7.5-8%. In yet another jolt, the advisory council also raised its inflation forecast to 6.5-7% from an earlier estimate of 5-6% for the current fiscal, mainly due to poor monsoon, which is expected to pull down the agriculture growth rate to 0.5% from 2.8 percent last year. Terming inflation control, containing fiscal deficit and current account deficit, as the policy challenges for the government, C Rangarajan, chairman of the PM’s economic advisory council lowered the GDP forecast to 6.7%, which still remains a tad better 6.5% pace at which India grew in 2011-12.

The government’s fiscal deficit, which has overshot a target of 4.6% of GDP by 1.2% in 2011/12 and is expected to swell to 6% of GDP in the current year to March 2013, is seen as bigger threat to India’s economy growth, which has already sunk near a decade low to 5.3%, in January-March quarter.  Meanwhile, India's current account, the broadest measure of its trade in goods and services with the rest of the world, swelled to a record deficit of $21.7 billion or 4.5% of GDP in the March quarter.

Thus, in a need to rein in the country's fiscal and current account deficits to avoid the risk of a credit ratings downgrade to junk status, advisers to the prime minister, urged the government to raise subsidized diesel prices, a long-promised policy that has failed to gain political backing, along with measures to entice foreign investment, both of which would help ease pressure on the twin deficits. Global rating agencies, Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor's Ratings Services this year warned India of turning into the first of the so-called BRIC economies to lose its investment-grade status, if it failed to control the fiscal and current account deficits.

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