India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) in its latest report has marginally lowered India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection to 7.3% for fiscal year 2019-20 (FY20), from its earlier projection of 7.5%. The key reasons for the downward revision are the prediction of lower-than-normal monsoon for 2019 and continued agrarian distress, and the loss of momentum in the industrial output growth, especially manufacturing and electricity.
Besides, the slow progress on cases referred to the National Company Law Tribunal under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016, was another reason cited by the rating agency for lowering the growth forecast. It said inability to bring the stuck capital back into the production process will have implications for investment recovery. Therefore, investment expenditure growth, as measured by gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), has been downwardly revised to 9.2% for 2019-20 from the earlier forecast of 10.3%.
Following the monsoon forecast, Ind-Ra estimates agricultural gross value added growth at 2.5% (earlier forecast was 3%) for FY20 compared with the 2.7% recorded for FY19. The key support to the gross value added growth in FY20 is likely to come from services, followed by industry. On the prices front, the rating agency expects wholesale and retail inflation to remain benign at 3.4% and 4% in FY20, respectively.
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