The Finance Ministry in its monthly report for March said that though easing of monetary policy has the potential to support growth, the recent cuts in the key short-term lending rate, or repo rate by 25 basis points each in February and April are yet to transmit to weighted average lending rate (WALR) of banks. Therefore, it said the effects of easing on investment activity are yet to manifest.
According to the report, credit growth could have been challenged by continuous tightening of bank liquidity causing the call money market rates to trend up since Q1 (April-June) of 2018-19, however, some relief is evident in Q4FY19. It also said that nominal exchange rate has been appreciating in Q3 of 2018-19, yet the net flow of portfolio investment remained negative. It added that the real effective exchange rate has appreciated in the Q4 of 2018-19 and could pose challenges to the revival of exports in the near future.
The monthly report further said that India’s foreign exchange reserves in terms of months of import cover have dropped from 14 months from April 2016 to 9 months in October 2018. However, it noted that the import cover has been increasing since then. It also explained that not only do fuel and food inflation directly drive the Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline inflation, they do so indirectly as well by spilling over into other sectors of the economy as captured by core inflation.
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