India’s CPI-inflation marginally eases to 9.86% in July; remains above RBI’s comfort level

21 Aug 2012 Evaluate

Thanks to the drop in petrol prices at the pump, annual rate of inflation, based on the consumer prices index (CPI) in India, eased marginally in the month of July to 9.86 percent, however drought in parts of the country, which drove food prices higher, limited the downside. According to the data released by Central Statistics Office, provisional annual inflation rate based on all India general CPI (Combined) for July 2012 on point to point basis stood at 9.86 percent as compared to 10.02 percent for the previous month of June 2012. However, June consumer price inflation was revised lower to 9.93 percent from 10.02 percent earlier.

According to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, which released the monthly provisional CPI on Base 2010=100 along with annual inflation rates for July 2012, all India provisional General (all groups), CPI numbers of July 2012 for rural, urban and combined were at 122.6, 119.9 and 121.4 respectively. The corresponding inflation rates for rural and urban areas for July came in at 9.76 percent  and 10.10 percent respectively as against June’s  9.65 percent  and 10.44 percent, respectively, which indicated that the rate of price rise rose in rural areas while that in the urban areas eased slightly.

In the backdrop of drought like situation, food inflation in the CPI accelerated to 11.53 percent in July from 10.71 percent in June. India has the highest retail inflation among the BRICS group of emerging economies - Brazil, Russia, China, and South Africa -- and is way above the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s comfort level. However, unlike most central banks, the RBI uses wholesale inflation in its policy formulation, as annual consumer price inflation data was only launched this year in January. Aided by lower increases in fuel prices, India’s wholesale price index (WPI) dropped to three year low of 6.87 percent in June, its slowest rate since January.

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