RBI needs to go for larger rate cut in next monetary policy review in June: SBI Report

15 May 2019 Evaluate

In order to reverse the current slowdown in the economy, State Bank of India (SBI) in its latest report has said that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) needs to go in for a larger rate cut, more than 25 basis points, in the next monetary policy review in June 2019. The RBI had cut the key short term lending rate (repo) by 25 points each in its last two policy reviews and is slated to announce the next bi-monthly policy on June 6.

The report highlighted that initial trends in fourth quarter of 2018-19 exhibit overall decline in sectors such as telecom equipment and infra services; agro chemicals; petrochemicals; infrastructure developers and castings. The report also mentioned that pharmaceutical companies dependent on exports are likely to report poor growth numbers. In January-March 2018-19 quarter, of 384 companies more than 330 companies exhibited negative growth in mid-line and bottom-line. Perhaps, significantly depressed rural prices is disturbing rural income and weak demand is affecting the FMCG sector.

Overall, the report said ‘we still believe the current slowdown could still be transitory, if proper policies are adopted in interregnum. For example, the high real interest rates are severely acting as a impediment to investment’. Besides, the report added the RBI should now ensure that asset and liability side of banks move in tandem and ensure repo rate is directly benchmarked to non-volatile bank liabilities /Current Account Savings Account (CASA) that are mostly used for transaction purposes. Otherwise, India would continue to be constrained by lack of transmission.

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