Rating agency, Crisil in its latest report has said thinner spreads and rising under-recoveries are expected to shave the operating profit margins of oil marketing companies (OMCs) by 1.5-1.7 per cent in current financial year (FY20), even as crude prices remain elevated and volatile. Operating margins had declined 1.6 per cent in last financial year (FY19). In FY19, profitability of OMCs was hit as their average gross refining margin (GRM) declined by a third to $5.3 per barrel from $7.9 in FY18.
For the current financial year, it said GRMs are foreseen even lower at $4- $5 per barrel, without considering inventory losses/gains, mainly due to spreads, which have been under pressure since the third quarter of last fiscal, are expected to contract afresh this fiscal, especially for motor spirit (petrol) and naphtha, because of oversupply in Asia following commissioning of new supplies. Moreover, it added the US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, and production cuts by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are expected to keep crude oil prices firm at $70 per barrel and cause high volatility.
Besides, the rating agency also predicated net profit margins coming under pressure because of higher interest costs. OMCs have had to contract 22 per cent more short-term debt last fiscal because of inadequate payments from the government, and also to service under-recoveries of the recent past. For the current fiscal, the government has budgeted Rs 37,500 crore towards subsidy for under-recovery. Add the rolled over under-recovery of last fiscal, and the total burden on the government is Rs 56,400 crore. Overall debt of OMCs surged 39 per cent to Rs 145,700 crore in FY19, which cranked up their debt-to-Ebidta ratio to 2.5 times from 1.7 times in FY18.
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