Post Session: Quick Review

Indian equity benchmarks ended the volatile day of trade marginally in red on Friday, amid caution ahead of March quarter GDP data, scheduled for release later in the day. Key indices started the day with gains, as traders took encouragement with industry body FICCI's economic outlook survey showed that India's GDP is likely to grow 6.5 per cent in the fourth quarter ended March 2019. FICCI survey has put forth an annual median GDP growth forecast for 2019-20 at 7.1 per cent and the projection for fiscal 2020-21 has been put at 7.2 per cent. Sentiment was also buoyed on a report that India Inc. has welcomed the new term and team of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and hoped that it would be able to give new impetus to the economy, which is facing slowdown in several sectors.

However, sudden selling pressure in equity markets came in afternoon deals, amid reports that the rupee witnessed high volatility in the forex market following the allocation of key portfolios in the newly elected government. However, the markets managed to pare most of their early losses in dying hour of trade, taking support from NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar’s statement that a slew of 'big-bang' economic reforms that should please foreign investors are likely to be pursued in the first 100 days of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's second term. Kumar further said that the reforms will include changes in labour laws, privatisation moves, and creation of land banks for new industrial development.

On the global front, Asian markets ended mixed on Friday in response to escalating trade tensions and after the release of weak Chinese data. European markets were trading in red, even though Germany's retail sales rebounded in April from last year driven by the timing of Easter. Back home, the metal industry stocks were in focus with report that Japan and South Korea strengthened their grip on the Indian steel market in April, supplying nearly three-fifths of the total imports. The increasing inroads the foreign steelmakers are making will add to pressure on the Indian government to take protectionist measures to support local mills.

The BSE Sensex ended at 39762.40, down by 69.57 points or 0.17% after trading in a range of 39374.24 and 40122.34. There were 14 stocks advancing against 17 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The broader indices ended mixed; the BSE Mid cap index fell 0.36%, while Small cap index was down by 0.57%.(Provisional)

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were IT up by 1.30%, TECK up by 1.19%, Oil & Gas up by 0.99%, Telecom up by 0.66% and Energy up by 0.40%, while Power down by 1.17%, FMCG down by 0.89%, Metal down by 0.87%, Utilities down by 0.71% and Auto down by 0.61% were the top losing indices on BSE. (Provisional)

The top gainers on the Sensex were Asian Paints up by 2.54%, TCS up by 2.50%, HCL Tech. up by 1.74%, ONGC up by 1.53% and Indusind Bank up by 1.19%. (Provisional)

On the flip side, Yes Bank down by 4.56%, ITC down by 3.68%, Mahindra & Mahindra down by 2.34%, Vedanta down by 1.74% and NTPC down by 1.74% were the top losers. (Provisional)

Meanwhile, the industry chamber, Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) in its latest economic outlook survey has stated that India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is likely to grow at 6.5% in the fourth quarter ended March 2019. Besides, it has put forth an annual median GDP growth forecast for 2019-20 at 7.1% and the projection for fiscal 2020-21 has been put at 7.2%. The minimum and maximum growth estimate stood at 6.8% and 7.3%, respectively, for 2019-20.

The survey was conducted in May 2019 among economists belonging to the industry, banking and financial services sector. The median growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities has been put at 3% for 2019-20. Industry and services sector are expected to grow by 6.9% and 8%, respectively, during the year. The outlook of participating economists on inflation remained moderate.

On the inflation front, the survey noted that the Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation rate is projected at 3.1% in 2019-20, with a minimum and maximum range of 2.1% and 4%, respectively. On the contrary, the survey found that retail inflation has a median forecast of 4% for 2019-20. Participants also expressed that concerns remain on the external front with median current account deficit forecast pegged at 2.1% of GDP for 2019-20. Median export growth is pegged at 4% in the financial year 2019-20. Imports, on the other hand, are forecast to grow at 3.8% in the same year.

FICCI further said that the majority of the participating economists believed that the US' decision to end waiver granted to countries amid sanctions imposed on Iran is significant and will affect major oil-importing countries, including India. This becomes a major concern at a time when international prices of crude oil have been on the rise due to other factors such as supply constraints being undertaken by OPEC countries.

The CNX Nifty ended at 11918.25, down by 27.65 points or 0.23% after trading in a range of 11829.45 and 12039.25. There were 21 stocks advancing against 29 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The top gainers on Nifty were Tech Mahindra up by 3.81%, TCS up by 2.50%, Asian Paints up by 2.45%, Indian Oil Corp. up by 2.07% and Britannia Industries up by 1.65%. (Provisional)

On the flip side, Yes Bank down by 4.81%, ITC down by 3.50%, Grasim Industries down by 3.06%, Zee Entertainment down by 2.23% and Vedanta down by 2.13% were the top losers. (Provisional)

European markets were trading in red; UK’s FTSE 100 decreased 70.17 points or 0.97% to 7,147.99, France’s CAC fell 78.44 points or 1.49% to 5,170.47 and Germany’s DAX was down by 225.03 points or 1.89% to 11,677.05.

Asian markets ended mixed on Friday in response to escalating trade tensions and after the release of weak Chinese data. US President Donald Trump has announced new tariffs on all goods coming from Mexico to curb illegal immigration across the border to the US. Trump said that from 10 June a 5 percent tariff would be imposed and would slowly rise until the situation is resolved. Chinese shares fell modestly as China's manufacturing activity for the month of May missed expectations. The official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.4 from 50.1 in April. Further, Japanese shares ended lower as the yen strengthened and Germany's benchmark medium-term government bond yield hit the lowest level on record. Meanwhile, a slew of Japanese data released on May 31 proved to be a mixed bag.