India’s Q4 GDP growth hits 5-year low of 5.8%; full year growth stands at 6.8%

With poor performance by agriculture and manufacturing sectors, India’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew at its slowest pace in the January-March period of fiscal year 2018-19 (FY19) and hit a 5-year low of 5.8%. With this reading, India lost fastest-growing large economy tag to China for the first time in two-year. China's economy posted 6.4% growth in the March quarter. For the entire FY19, GDP growth stood at 6.8%, a five-year low after FY14, when the economy grew at 6.4%. In FY18, India's economy had grown at 7.7%. GDP growth figures for FY19 was even lower than the second advanced estimate released by the statistics office in February, which estimated FY19 economic growth at 7%.

The Central Statistics Office, in its latest estimate showed that GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q4 of 2018-19 is estimated at Rs 37.20 lakh crore, as against Rs 35.15 lakh crore in Q4 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 5.8%. GDP growth rates for Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2018-19 at Constant Prices (2011-12) are 8.0%, 7.0% and 6.6%, respectively. GVA at Basic Prices at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q4 of 2018-19 is estimated at Rs 33.06 lakh crore, as against Rs 31.27 lakh crore in Q4 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 5.7%.

GDP at Current Prices in Q4 of 2018-19 is estimated at Rs 50.16 lakh crore, as against Rs 45.85 lakh crore in Q4 of 2017-18, showing a growth of 9.4%. GDP at Current Prices for the year 2018-19 is estimated at Rs 190.10 lakh crore, showing a growth rate of 11.2% over the First Revised Estimates of GDP for the year 2017-18 of Rs 170.95 lakh crore. GVA at Current Basic Prices in Q4 of 2018-19 is estimated at Rs 44.02 lakh crore, as against Rs 40.20 lakh crore in Q4 of 2017-18, showing a growth of 9.5%.

The GVA in agriculture, forestry and fishing sectors contracted by 0.1% as against an expansion of 6.5% recorded in fourth quarter of 2017-18. The slowdown was quite steep in the key manufacturing segment as the GVA expansion was meagre 3.1% down from 9.5% during fourth quarter of 2017-18. However, the 'financial, real estate and professional services' segment showed improvement with the growth rate moving up to 9.5% in the last quarter of 2018-19 from 5.5% in the comparable period of the preceding fiscal.

The per capita income in real terms (at 2011-12 Prices) during 2018-19 is estimated to have attained a level of Rs 92,565 as compared to Rs 87,623 for the year 2017-18. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 5.6% during 2018-19, as against 5.7% in the previous year. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at Current Prices is estimated at Rs 112.90 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against Rs 100.83 lakh crore in 2017-18. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at Current Prices is estimated at Rs 21.35 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against Rs 18.86 lakh crore in 2017-18. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at Current Prices is estimated at Rs 55.70 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against Rs 48.97 lakh crore in 2017-18.