Lower interest rates alone are unlikely to jump-start the investment cycle: RBI

24 Aug 2012 Evaluate

Pouring cold water on the hopes of rate cuts in upcoming mid-quarterly monetary policy review, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its ‘Annual Report for 2011-12’, a review of the previous fiscal year's macroeconomic conditions and outlook for the current year, stated that “Lower interest rates alone are unlikely to jump-start the investment cycle”. Underscoring that fighting inflation remained the cornerstone of its monetary policy, even in light of sagging economic growth, India’s most aggressive central bank, urged the government to cut expenditure and revive capital expenditure to crowd-in private investment, stating the limited fiscal and monetary space it had to provide direct stimulus to growth.

The Reserve Bank of India, for 2012-13, is expecting the growth to remain below trend at around the previous year’s level of 6.5 per cent. India's growth has hobbled to a nine-year low of 5.3 percent in the March quarter, with many economists slashing their 2012/13 estimates to around 5.5 percent, lower than the RBI's downwardly revised projection of 6.5 percent. Further blearing this outlook, RBI highlighted that newer uncertainties for growth have emerged from unsatisfactory monsoon so far, which is likely to result in contraction in food grains output in 2012-13.

Meanwhile, blaming emergence of twin deficits, fiscal and trade, during 2011-12 a major cause of macro-economic weakness, current assessment of the Apex Bank suggested that the two demons would the keep their heads tall in 2012-13 in the absence of sufficient policy response and no improvement in business cycle conditions. “With growth remaining slow, budgetary targets are at risk. Shortfall in indirect tax revenue, decline in corporate earnings, difficulties with disinvestment and expenditure overshooting due to under-provision of petroleum subsidies are likely to put fiscal position under pressure,’’ the report said.

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