World Bank retains forecast of India's growth rate at 7.5% for FY20

06 Jun 2019 Evaluate

The World Bank in its Global Economic Prospects report has retained its forecast of India's growth rate at 7.5% for the current financial year 2019-20 (FY20) and said growth rate is expected to remain the same for the next two fiscal years, supported by robust investment and private consumption. It said private consumption and investment will benefit from strengthening credit growth amid more accommodative monetary policy, with inflation having fallen below the Reserve Bank of India's target. It added that support from delays in planned fiscal consolidation at the central level should partially offset the effects of political uncertainty around elections.

The report said that the country’s urban consumption was supported by a pickup in credit growth, whereas rural consumption was hindered by soft agricultural prices. On the production side, robust growth was broad-based, with a slight moderation in services and agricultural activity accompanied by an acceleration in the industrial sector. Weakening agricultural production reflected subdued harvest in major crops on the back of less rainfalls.

As per the report, services activity softened mainly due to slowing trade, hotel, transport, and communication activity. The industrial sector benefited from strong manufacturing and construction with solid demand for capital goods. The slowing momentum in economic activity in late 2018 carried into the first quarter of 2019, as suggested by softening services and manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Indexes. Observing that the new Goods and Services Tax regime is still in the process of being fully established, creating some uncertainty about the projections of government revenues, it said fiscal deficits continue to exceed official targets in some countries -- India, Pakistan.

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