RBI slashes repo rate by 25 bps to 5.75%; changes policy stance to ‘accommodative’

06 Jun 2019 Evaluate

Amid falling economic growth and uncertain global scenario, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its second bi-monthly monetary policy review of 2019-20, has slashed benchmark lending rates for the third in a row. The RBI has cut policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.75 per cent from 6.0 per cent with immediate effect. Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF stands adjusted to 5.50 per cent, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate to 6.0 per cent. The rate cut was in line with expectations. The monetary policy committee (MPC) led by Governor Shaktikanta Das has also decided to change the stance of monetary policy from neutral to accommodative. These decisions are in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4 per cent within a band of +/- 2 per cent, while supporting growth.

On the inflation front, the RBI has revised CPI inflation to 3.0-3.1 per cent for H1:2019-20 and to 3.4-3.7 per cent for H2:2019-20, with risks broadly balanced. Earlier, it had forecasted CPI at 2.9-3.0 per cent for H1:2019-20 and 3.5-3.8 per cent for H2:2019-20. It said that the baseline inflation trajectory for 2019-20 is shaped by several factors, first, the summer pick-up in vegetable prices has been sharper than expected, though this may be accompanied by a correspondingly larger reversal during autumn and winter. Second, a significant weakening of domestic and external demand conditions appear to have led to a sharp broad-based decline of 60 bps in inflation excluding food and fuel in April. Third, crude prices have continued to be volatile. Fourth, near-term inflation expectations of households have continued to moderate.

On the economic growth front, the Central Bank has revised downwards the gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for 2019-20 from 7.2 per cent in the April policy to 7.0 per cent - in the range of 6.4-6.7 per cent for H1:2019-20 and 7.2-7.5 per cent for H2 - with risks evenly balanced. The growth outlook has been revised as data for Q4:2018-19 indicate that domestic investment activity has weakened and overall demand has been weighed down partly by slowing exports. Besides, weak global demand due to escalation in trade wars may further impact India’s exports and investment activity. Further, private consumption, especially in rural areas, has weakened in recent months.  On the positive side, it said that political stability, high capacity utilisation, the uptick in business expectations in Q2, buoyant stock market conditions and higher financial flows to the commercial sector augur well for investment activity.


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