In order to achieve the objective of becoming a $5 trillion economy by 2024-25, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) KV Subramanian has said India needs to sustain a real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 8 percent. He added that to achieve this growth rate the country needs to accelerate investment in excess of 35 percent of the GDP. Besides, India's economic growth is expected to rebound from a five-year low to 7 percent this year (FY20).
He said ‘the investment as percentage of GDP has to be in excess of 35 percent. In fact, China for instance reached 50 percent of GDP. Definitely, we need to invest close to 35 percent.’ Currently, the country's investment level as percentage of GDP is 29.3 percent. He also said ‘From 29-odd if we get to mid-30s we will really get into virtuous cycle and then we need to sustain at that level’.
Subramanian further said international experience, especially from high-growth East Asian economies, suggests that such growth can only be sustained by a ‘virtuous cycle’ of savings, investment and exports catalysed and supported by a favourable demographic phase. Investment, especially private investment, is the ‘key driver’ that drives demand, creates capacity, increases labour productivity, introduces new technology, allows creative destruction, and generates jobs.
The CEA added that exports must form an integral part of the growth model because higher savings preclude domestic consumption as the driver of final demand. Similarly, job creation is driven by this virtuous cycle. He added that when examined across the entire value chain, capital investment fosters job creation as the production of capital goods, research and development and supply chains generate jobs.
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