India’s FY20 fiscal deficit target of 3.3% challenging to achieve: Moody's

08 Jul 2019 Evaluate

Expressing cautiousness over India’ fiscal deficit target, Moody's Investors Service has said that there are risks of the country missing 3.3% fiscal deficit target for the current financial year (FY20) if tax revenue underperforms projections, as it did last year. Besides, the Budget 2019-20 lowered fiscal deficit projection to 3.3% for FY20 from 3.4% targeted in the Interim Budget 2019-20 in February. The fiscal deficit, which is the gap between government expenditure and revenue, was 3.4% in 2018-19.

However, the rating agency said the headline deficit may be achieved but through reliance on one-off revenue such as disinvestments and transfers from the central bank, and off-budget spending. The government has pegged disinvestment target for the current financial year at Rs 1.05 lakh crore, up from Rs 90,000 crore projected in Interim Budget for 2019-20 in February.

Moody's said that in the Union Budget, the government announced a lower fiscal deficit target for fiscal 2020, while maintaining its support for growth and incomes. Achieving these competing goals will be challenging. It expect the economy to grow relatively slowly, despite the government's income support measures.

In addition to funding, an expansion of support for farmers, a new pension scheme and relief for small taxpayers, as previously announced, the latest Budget includes a Rs 70,000 crore recapitalisation of state-owned banks. It said this will support growth by encouraging the flow of credit to the economy, although simultaneously adding to government debt.

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