S&P Global Ratings in its latest report has said that a higher disinvestment and dividend target for state-owned entities (SOEs) may strain their credit profiles, especially if an SOE has to buy a government stake in another SOE or pay more dividends than free cash flow allows, to support these policy objectives. But, it also said steps toward private participation in rail infrastructure are likely to create growth opportunities for corporates. It said the government’s growing emphasis on private sector participation reflects its limited fiscal space.
The rating agency forecasted that the general government’s net indebtedness at 67.1 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by the end of the current fiscal year against a projected fiscal deficit of 6.7 per cent of GDP. The Budget 2019-20 has set a disinvestment target of Rs 1.05 lakh crore, while Rs 57,487 crore is expected to come from central public sector enterprises (CPSEs) as dividend.
Capital expenditure as a percentage of total proposed expenditure remains very low at just 12.1 per cent, approximately equal to total expenditure on subsidies. S&P further said elevated general government deficits and indebtedness will continue to cap direct infrastructure investment. It also said general government deficits will remain elevated despite the marginal decline at the central government level to 3.3 per cent of GDP this fiscal year projected in the budget.
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