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Telecom companies’ credit profiles to remain under pressure in medium term: Ind-Ra

10 Jul 2019 Evaluate

India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) in its latest report has cautioned that telecom companies’ credit profiles will remain under pressure in the medium term because of high competitive intensity, elevated debt levels and continued reliance on capital infusion for servicing loans and capital expenditure (capex). It also said that while the green shoots are visible in the telecom sector, meaningful recovery will take time.

According to the report, revenue recovery may continue going ahead, albeit at a slower pace, as the proportion of high average revenue per user (ARPU) subscribers in the data and broadband categories continues to be low at 40-44 percent and 30 percent, respectively, of overall subscriber base. After a steadily fall over the past two-and-a-half years, data tariffs rose 11-17 percent during October 2018-February 2019, but has been stable since then. It added that likely recovery in profitability, if any, may not be enough to resolve credit concerns such as high leverage, elevated capex, sustained negative free cash flow and the need for asset monetisation.

Ind-Ra further said while near-term liquidity issues have been addressed through capital infusion and asset monetisation, the business model is unlikely to become attractive unless players record a substantial improvement in profitability. It noted that incremental spending by operators to acquire spectrum along with investments in 5G technology could further stretch their balance sheets and derail the recovery process. However, it said the auction may not garner adequate interest as telcos are still optimising their existing spectrum; moreover, spectrum pricing continues to be matter of concern, and 5G technology has still not been finalized.

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