Ratings agency Crisil in its latest report has said that corporate India is expected to register 5-6% revenue growth in Q1 (April-June) of 2019-20, the slowest pace in two years. It noted that average revenue growth stood at 14-15% in the previous four quarters. It pointed out that the slow pace of revenue growth can be attributed to a broad-based slowdown in consumption, which has affected sectors such as automobiles and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG).
According to the report, automobiles, one of the key sectors driven by consumption spending, continues to reel under a demand slowdown. It noted that higher cost of ownership continues to dampen consumer sentiment for passenger vehicles, while commercial vehicle sales are being impacted by new axle norms, inventory build-up and liquidity crunch. It pointed out that this also impacts ancillary sectors such as auto components and tyres, which are expected to report lower growth.
For FMCG, Crisil said weakened rural consumption and a high base are expected to cause a moderation in growth. It said adding to the pain from a slowdown in consumption is a fall in realisations in key commodity categories, which supported revenue growth in fiscal 2019, especially the first half. It stated that a slower weakening of the rupee, at around 4% on-year compared with around 8% on average over fiscal 2019, is also expected to scrape some growth off key export-linked sectors like information technology (IT) services. It added that revenue growth for the latter is expected to moderate to around 12% on year compared with the around 17% average growth rate over the past four quarters.
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