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  3. India’s Q1FY13 economic growth seen at 5.2 percent: Moody’s

India’s Q1FY13 economic growth seen at 5.2 percent: Moody’s

30 Aug 2012 Evaluate

With GDP growth data for April-June quarter due for release on Aug 31, Research firm Moody’s, is expecting Asia’s third largest economy to grow at 5.2 percent on year on year (y-o-y) basis, its lowest pace of growth since early 2009. Further, supporting this view, the research firm added that, ‘the difference this time around behind the sluggish growth would be largely domestic factors and not developments abroad, which emerged as the primary reason behind the 2009 slowdown.

Moody’s Analytics underscored weak business confidence, which was weighed down by stubborn inflation, elevated interest rates, a weak global economy, political gridlock and policy stagnation at the national level, as the primary reason for this forecast. Highlighting that the slowdown was well entrenched in all the sector and broader economy clearly growing below potential, the research firm forecasted India’s economy to grow at 5.5 percent for current fiscal, thoroughly rejecting the government’s overly positive outlook for 7.6 per cent growth across the 2012-2013 fiscal year.

Meanwhile, hit by high interest rates and the global downturn, India’s GDP growth slumped to a nine-year low of 5.3% in the January-March quarter, while that for the entire fiscal, dropped to 6.5 percent, lower than the government's initial estimate of 6.9 per cent and far below the 8.4 per cent logged the previous year.

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