Economic slowdown, NBFC crisis pose NPA scare: Moody’s

30 Jul 2019 Evaluate

Expressing caution over Indian baking sector, international rating agency Moody’s Investors Service in its latest report has said that even as more and more crippled banks come out of the dud asset tunnel, the heightening growth slowdown and the lingering crisis at non-banking lenders pose fresh challenges to their asset quality. Moody’s said its 12-18 month outlook on the banking system in India (Baa2 stable) is stable.

On the economic growth, the report said it expects growth to be ‘weaker’ in the next 12-18 months, without quantifying its growth expectation. It said the economic slowdown comes at a time when banks are recovering from legacy non-performing loans, which at the system level had crossed 12% in recent past and is trending under 10% now. While banks’ operating environment will stay stable, the slowdown poses challenges to their asset quality. It said growth moderation can lead to the creation of a fresh bad loan mess in the retail, and small and medium enterprise segments.

The agency said there will be a slowdown in fresh bad loans generation in the non-financial sector due to the recovery of the corporate sector and also recoveries from legacy problem loans. It also said capital infusions by the government will help public sector banks maintain their capital ratios at current levels and added that some private sector banks are in the process of raising new capital from the markets, as their asset growth outstrips internal capital generation.

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