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CRISIL reduces India’s GDP growth estimate for FY20 by 20 bps to 6.9%

02 Aug 2019 Evaluate

CRISIL in its latest report has lowered its estimate of India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 20 basis points (bps) to 6.9 per cent for the current financial year (FY20) on account of downside risks like weak monsoon and slowing global growth. It mentioned that the slowdown would be pronounced in the first half of the fiscal, while the second half should find support from expected monetary easing, consumption, and statistical low-base effect.

It further stated that that the non-bank (including housing finance companies) crisis, which began late last fiscal, and the stress that ensued, slowed disbursals and further impacted household demand, which had already moderated amid lower incomes, weak sentiment and rising costs (fuel prices and insurance for automobiles). With access to funding becoming a challenge and non-banks caught up in managing liquidity, their growth halved to a multi-year low in the second-half of last fiscal, and remains impacted.

However, it noted that India's GDP had grown at an impressive 8.2 per cent in fiscal 2017, the fastest in a decade. This was followed by disruptions stemming from policy initiatives and reforms, and rising global uncertainty including from trade disputes -- which together triggered a cyclical downturn.

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