With flat growth in agriculture sector, economic policy think-tank, the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) in its latest report said that India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is likely to be 6.2 per cent during the current fiscal (FY20), down from 6.8 per cent in 2018-19. It also said that the prospects for agricultural sector in 2019-20 depend largely on the south-west monsoon.
It said out of a total number of 36 agro-meteorological sub-divisions in the country, three have received excess rainfall, 21 get normal rainfall, while the remaining 12 sub-divisions were rain deficient, as of August 5, 2019. It added that the country as a whole has received 7 per cent below normal rainfall by August 5, 2019. The country has also experienced temporal variations in rainfall.
NCAER’s forecast as per the annual model for Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices is at 6 per cent for 2019-20 on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis. The forecast as per the quarterly model is that GVA will grow at 6.2 per cent on a y-o-y basis. It further said the real agriculture GVA is envisaged to grow at zero per cent, real industry GVA at 6.1 per cent, and real services GVA at 6.9 per cent in 2019-20.
On the inflation front, it said the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation is projected at 2.6 per cent. Besides, the growth rates in exports and imports, in dollar terms, are estimated at 4.4 per cent and 3.3 per cent, respectively. The current account balance and central fiscal deficit, as percentages of GDP, are projected at (-) 0.6 per cent and 3.5 per cent, respectively.
