India’s debt rating could be raised if government reduces its public deficit: S & P

16 Aug 2011 Evaluate

The Standard and Poor’s does not see any immediate impact on the India’s sovereign rating of BBB-/stable from the downgrading of the United States rating to AA+ from AAA, however, Indian government is threatened of not meeting the fiscal target for the current financial year and is unable to carry forward economic policy reforms which may have implications in the medium term.

The Standard and Poor’s sovereign analyst Takahira Ogawa said 'We do not see an immediate impact on India's sovereign rating (BBB-/Stable) resulting from the lowering of the US sovereign rating to AA+.' Recently, the Standard and Poor’s downgraded the sovereign rating of the United States to AA+ from AAA. The credit rating is opinions that reflect the ability and willingness of the rated entity to meet its financial obligation. This decline of the US sovereign rating had hampered the sentiments of the stock market all over the world, including India.

India has been struggling from the stubbornly high inflation, which is hovering near the two digit mark from last few months. The head line inflation for the first quarter of 2011-12 has been more than 9% and for June it stood at 9.44%, whereas weekly food inflation stood at 9.9 % for the week ended 30 July.  on the fiscal front, government is finding difficult to meet its fiscal target due to, rising crude oil prices and high food and fertilizer subsidies, besides the failure of government to raise Rs 40,000 crore form the disinvestment of Public Sector Units (PSUs) in 2010-11, and government is also expected to miss its target of raising Rs 40,000 crore form disinvestment of PSUs in 2011-12. 

The S&P on India's sovereign rating said that it could be raised if the government continues to reduce the public sector's deficits materially. 'For example, future government initiatives to significantly reduce subsidies for fertilisers, foods and fuels would be a positive factor in improving the expenditure structure of the budget and reducing the negative influence of potential external shocks on India's fiscal position,' the S & P said.

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