India’s GDP growth may ease to 6.0% in Q1 FY20: ICRA

23 Aug 2019 Evaluate

Amid a slowdown in the expansion of industry and agriculture, credit rating agency ICRA has estimated India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate at 5.5-6 percent in the first quarter (April-June) of the fiscal year 2019-20. It highlighted that the country’s economy accelerated to 8.2% during the same quarter of the previous year, on the back of a strong core performance and a healthy base.

According to the report, industrial growth is expected to decelerate sharply to 5.0% in Q1 FY20 from 9.8% in Q1 FY19, due to factors like weakening domestic demand, a contraction in exports, muted investment activity during the elections and an unfavourable base effect. Based on a modest rise in volumes and subdued earnings in various sectors, it expects manufacturing gross value added (GVA) growth to ease significantly to around 5.0% in Q1 FY20 from 12.1% in Q1 FY19. It also expects construction GVA growth to record a considerable easing to around 5.0% in Q1 FY20 from 9.6% in Q1 FY19. However, it said that electricity generation is expected to record an improved performance in Q1 FY20 on the back of a turnaround in hydroelectricity.

Rating agency further said that services sector growth is expected to remain steady at around 7.1% in Q1 FY20, in line with the performance in Q1 FY19. It said an improved performance of financial, real estate and professional services, and public administration and defence, is likely to offset a slowdown in the growth of trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting. It added that the enhanced profitability metrics of the banking system, led by lower provisioning and treasury gains, as well as a turnaround in FII inflows, are expected to boost the GVA growth of financial, real estate and professional services in Q1 FY20.

© 2026 The Alchemists Ark Pvt. Ltd. All rights reserved. MoneyWorks4Me ® is a registered trademark of The Alchemists Ark Pvt. Ltd.

×