Services PMI register fastest growth in 6-months in August

05 Sep 2012 Evaluate

Service sector activity in India expanded at the fastest pace in six months in August, driven by the strongest growth in new business since February and increasing optimism about the future. The service sector, which includes government service like railway transport, make up nearly 60 percent of India's economic output, extended its growth momentum for the tenth straight month.

According to the seasonally adjusted HSBC Business Activity Index, the service sector activity soared to 55.00 in August, as against 54.2 in the previous month. A figure above 50 signals increase in production while, a number below 50 indicates contraction. However, manufacturing companies signaled pace of production at the slowest since November 2011 as short supply of power negatively affected production.

Meanwhile, new orders at private sector companies in India rose steeply in August. The volume of new total business expanded faster since February, as power shortage continued to impact negatively on manufacturers. Additionally, staffing levels were increased in the Indian private sector in August. Although the pace of expansion was modest at services firms, but job creation at manufacturers was the fastest in the series history.

Extending the current inflationary period to 39 months, the composite data posted a further increase in output cost, but the rate of increase was the slowest since March. Manufacturing and service companies both signaled higher charges with the rate of inflation faster in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, even input cost inflation persisted in the Indian private sector in August. Although steep, the rate of increase in input cost inflation eased to the slowest since June 2010 and was below its long-run average.

Thus, HSBC Composite Index, which covers the manufacturing and service sectors, although remain unchanged at 54.3 in August from 54.4 seen in July 2012, the rate of increase marked was the slowest in four months. However, the HSBC survey further indicated that though the inflation readings eased, but remain firm on the back of rising wage costs and solid demand. Thus, with inflation risks still lingering despite the slowdown and policy action out of Delhi so far insufficient, the RBI has little room to manoeuvre.

Indian central bank although left key interest rates unchanged in its recent monetary policy review meet on July 31, but did slash the Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) of scheduled commercial banks from 24% to 23% of their NDTL with effect from the fortnight beginning August 11, 2012. Further, this stronger performance of service sector could further dash already receding expectations for more interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of India, which is now widely expected to leave them on hold in their upcoming mid-quarterly monetary policy review on September 17.

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