Auto component industry likely to see 5-7% CAGR over fiscals 2020, 2021: Crisil

28 Aug 2019 Evaluate

Credit rating agency Crisil in its latest report has said that India’s automotive components industry is projected to log a lower 5-7 percent compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over the fiscals 2020 and 2021 as compared to 12 percent in the previous two fiscals, on the back of the ongoing slump in the demand for vehicles. Besides, it said that the industry's topline growth is likely to recede to half in the next two fiscals, though tighter safety and emission norms for original equipment makers (OEMs) could give partial respite to the Rs 3.5 lakh crore industry.

The rating agency also revealed that capital expenditure spend will be discretionary and could be around 15 percent lower at Rs 12,000 crore in fiscals 2020 and 2021, compared with the preceding two fiscals. It also said that the upcoming safety and emission norms will boost demand for components like airbags, engine systems, exhaust management systems, and electronic and electrical parts. It noted that these new regulations alone are expected to account for 25-30 percent of the incremental demand for automotive components in the next two fiscals. It added that the growth in fiscal 2020 and 2021 would be even lower, but for the higher component intensity resulting from the regulatory changes, besides steady aftermarket sales and healthy exports.

According to the report, the production volume of the OEMs is estimated to either register a year-on-year decline or log low single-digit at best in the next two years. It also noted that higher insurance costs, lower availability of finance and low growth in rural wages is affecting off-take in fiscal 2020. Vehicle demand is also expected to be impacted by the new safety norms for passenger vehicles and two-wheelers, applicable in fiscal 2020, and the Bharat Stage (BS) VI emission norms, which would come into force from April 1, 2020, as these will drive up vehicle prices across categories. As per to Crisil, these factors are affecting new vehicle sales and in turn causing an impact on the automotive component sector, as OEMs account for 65 percent of component demand. 

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